Fri 31 Oct 2008
Polling Roundup: 4 Days until Election Day
Posted by admin under elections , National , Politics Comments OffThe following is a round-up of polls from across the country graciously supplied by Scott Wilk of Anchor Consulting, LLC. The Beacon is grateful to Scott for supplying this interesting election information leading up to the election and we hope our readers have enjoyed it. The daily Diageo/Hotline tracking poll of likely voters shows Obama ahead, 48-41%. Gallup’s latest tracking poll of national RVs has Obama leading, 50-42%.
- Gallup’s tracking poll of national LVs, where the polling universe is based on past voting history, has Obama leading, 51-44%.
 - Gallup’s tracking poll of national LVs, where the polling universe is based on stated intent to vote, has Obama leading, 50-45%.
 - Rasmussen’s tracker has the race at 51-47%, Obama.
 - ABC News/WaPo tracker of likely voters has Obama ahead, 52-44
 - The latest New York Times/CBS poll of national likely voters, conducted 10/25-29, shows Barack Obama with a 51-40% lead.
 - Florida Chamber of Commerce poll of likely Florida voters, conducted 10/26-27, has Obama leading 45-41%.
 - Rasmussen poll of 500 likely Indiana voters, conducted October 28-29, shows McCain leading in the Hoosier state, 49-46%.
 - Rasmussen poll of 500 likely Montana voters, conducted October 29, has McCain leading in the Big Sky state, 50-46%.
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FiveThirtyEight.com battleground state-by-state projections, based on weighted polling aggregates:
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- Colorado- 52-47% Obama
- Florida- 50-48% Obama
- Indiana- 50-49% McCain
- Missouri- 49-49% Tied
- Nevada- 51-48% Obama
- New Hampshire- 53-45% Obama
- North Carolina- 50-49% Obama
- Ohio- 51-48% Obama
- Pennsylvania- 54-45% Obama
- Virginia- 52-47% Obama
Legislation on the House Floor Today: In recess
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Legislation on the Senate Floor Today: In recess
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Other News
- The most recent New York Times/CBS News poll showed that “59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job†and “[n]early a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president.†This helped explain why “voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCainâ€. (NYT)
 - The John McCain as Bob Dole narrative has picked up some steam recently. Chicago Tribune’s Jill Zuckman writes, “[b]oth are war heroes, known best for their political biography. Both returned to the Senate in the midst of campaigning, foundering for a time as a result. And both watched their opponent draw record crowds while theirs were comparatively lackluster.†Nielsen ratings reveal that more than 33.5 million people Obama infomercial on Wednesday. (ABC)
 - Senator McCain is devoting significant resources to keeping Ohio in the Republican column. Though national and battleground polls show an uphill battle in Ohio and elsewhere, “McCain aides say a victory Tuesday is still possible… Bill McInturf, Sen. McCain’s chief pollster, argued this week that Sen. McCain is closing the gap in battleground states.†However, a range of Ohio polls “show Sen. Obama leading here, by four to nine percentage points.†(WSJ)
 - The McCain campaign and the RNC plan to “unleash a barrage of spending on television advertising that will allow him to keep pace with Sen. Barack Obama’s ad blitz during the campaign’s final days†but will do so at the expense of their GOTV efforts. “The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain. He has spent half as much as Obama on staffing and has opened far fewer field offices.†(WaPo)
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